planning for the future

Archdruid has a post this week about his impressions of the Transition Town movement. The idea behind this movement is that communities can plan and actively work toward a successful existence in a post-industrial, post-oil future. While this is the first I've heard of Transition Town, I've been aware for some time that some local activists have been holding meetings on this subject.

Archdruid makes his usual insightful points (he's an uncommon genius, and his posts consistently demonstrate this) about the risks involved in mapping a specific course through an uncertain future. The point that resonated loudest with me was:

"...that these processes will bring the decline and fall of industrial civilization, along a trajectory like those of other civilizations that outran their resource bases. How these broad patterns will work out in the microhistory of a town or a region, though, is anyone’s guess, and history seems to take an impish delight in frustrating our expectations."

It's probably worth mentioning that the price of oil is down by nearly two-thirds since its all-time highs four months ago, when most of us were wondering about the devastating effects of the seemingly imminent $250 oil. Rumor has it that some suburban gas stations in this area have recently been selling gas for $1.50-ish per gallon, and it may go lower still. Just a few months ago, gas was $4, and the only person who believed $2 gas would ever again be a reality was noted camera-loving screwball Rep. Michele Bachmann (R - MN), though Bachmann's predictions invoked a mechanism different than what has actually happened. Interestingly, our oil consumption is falling off drastically even as we see multi-year lows in the price of consuming oil. Who would have guessed this outcome earlier this year? Who would have based actual plans on such a guess?

Along with the energy price declines, more generalized deflation seems to be the most likely threat to our economy. Just weeks ago Congress and the President enacted a massive bank bail-out that rivals the Louisiana Purchase in terms of (inflation-adjusted) dollars spent for a singular purpose, but in this case, of course, the dollars aren't backed by anything except a bankrupt government. At the same time, interest rates were slashed to all-time lows. All the experts were predicting inflation, even hyperinflation. But now it looks like deflation is more likely in the short-term, with inflation predicted to follow. Maybe.

We've all heard the stories of upside-down adjustable-rate mortgages, depleted 401k funds, and other gambles that didn't pan out in recent years. Behind every one of those stories is a person who saw the house or the stock market as a stable investment, which always goes up in price. Most sensible people will tell me that their investments will come back (they always do!) or that continuing similar investments is a good idea for the long term. Unfortunately, sensible people haven't always had the best luck in predicting the future. Lots of sensible people from my childhood in Michigan told me that I should go to school to be an engineer and, if I'm lucky and hardworking, get a job working for GM, where I could have a stable job with one of the most invincible companies on Earth. Some minor variation on this oft-advised strategy was the plan of almost every technically-minded student I knew in college. But it's starting to look like that advice was about 30 years too late (if only my dad had been a GM engineer...).

I don't know where I'm going with all this, except to suggest flexibility and a willingness to scrutinize assumptions and to make frequent adjustments to any plan.