commentary on NYT article

Since reading about this NYT article on Mellow Velo, I've had a few lingering thoughts on the topic of how bicycle shops will fare in the current and near-future economic climate. Tonight I was prodded by a prominent local blogger to offer my opinions on the article. If you don't care to read the article yourself, the basic thrust was that bicycle shops had a great summer with $4 gas (mostly doing repairs), but are now suffering the effects of the broader economic slowdown.

I would question whether the effect of the recession is discernible in the bike business at this point. Winter is a typical slow time in the business, and teasing out the recession effects from the normal seasonal lull of a business that is always volatile anyway is not a trivial matter. It's sort of like declaring that global warming has concluded based on the evidence that it's colder now than it was last July. I'll wait a few months and compare July 2009 to July 2008, and then maybe we'll have something to talk about.

Anyway, one snippet of the article caught my eye:

Business skyrocketed last summer along with gasoline prices, Mr. Graves said, especially sales of hybrid bikes that can be used for recreation and transportation. So Mr. Graves ordered plenty of cold weather gear for what he believed would be legions of new bike commuters.

“We wished we hadn’t gone in quite as heavy,” Mr. Graves said. “Business is not growing at the rate it was earlier in the year.”

I've written in the past that I don't like this term "hybrid", which refers to a bicycle that supposedly blends the comfortable upright riding position (flat or riser handlebars) associated with mountain bikes with the high-pressure smooth tires associated with road bikes. In the bike business, "hybrid" is code for "inexpensive entry level bike" that will ultimately induce novice cyclists to buy something more serious. Don't get me wrong, I have plenty of respect for this general type of bike - ample tire and fender clearance, rack mounts, comfortable position, etc - but I dislike how these bikes are marketed as inherently flawed compromises for those who can't commit to "mountain" or "road". (they do tend to be flawed, but that's another matter). The point is that I'm suspicious of the term "hybrid" and anybody who uses such jargon regularly. Buying a bunch of hybrids because they are suddenly perceived as fashionable does not make a typical bike shop into a bike commuter shop, in my opinion. It would be like us at HC suddenly stocking a bunch of sexy racing bikes. It simply isn't our thing, and it would be obvious to most customers who may be interested in that kind of item, especially when I repeatedly steer them toward a 30-lb bike that can fit a 37 with fenders.

I've long ago decided that broader bicycle industry trends don't necessarily affect commuter-centric shops like HC in the same way that they affect more mainstream bike shops. We have seen a steady improvement in sales figures every year we've been in business. This Fall/Winter has been better than expected for us (the beauty of low expectations), but that's mostly because of a few larger sales to regular customers rather than because we're seeing a massive surge in winter cycling. My strategy for 2009 is to take nothing for granted. This basically means not entangling us in commitments to vendors, and not buying on credit terms. I foresee that repair and accessories will continue to dominate the business, and that sales of high-end bikes will continue to be sluggish in favor of more value-oriented lines. Frankly, we have enough 27" tires that I'm not worried about anything.